A recent United Nations report warns that if Gaza remains under blockade, it could take 350 years to rebuild following Israel’s offensive against Hamas, which is described as one of the deadliest military campaigns since World War II.
The U.N. Conference on Trade and Development stated that even if the conflict ended immediately and Gaza returned to its pre-October 7, 2023 status, the region’s battered economy would take an estimated 350 years to recover to its prewar levels.
Prior to the conflict, Gaza was already facing hardships due to a blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt since Hamas took control in 2007. This blockade, along with previous conflicts and political divisions, severely impacted Gaza’s economy.
The ongoing war has resulted in widespread destruction, with entire neighborhoods devastated and critical infrastructure in ruins. The area is filled with rubble, decaying bodies, and unexploded ordnance, all of which would need to be cleared before any rebuilding could commence.
The report indicated that a return to the pre-war status quo would not be conducive to recovery or sustainable development. With an average growth rate of only 0.4% from 2007 to 2022, Gaza would take 350 years just to restore its GDP levels from 2022, and GDP per capita would continue to decline due to population growth.
Israel defends the blockade as necessary to prevent Hamas from acquiring arms and attributes Gaza’s current situation to the militant group. Israel’s U.N. ambassador, Danny Danon, stated, “There is no future for the people of Gaza as long as their people continue to be occupied by Hamas.”
Rami Alazzeh, the report’s author, emphasized that recovery depends heavily on the conditions under which it occurs. He noted that the 350-year estimate should not be interpreted as a definitive timeline for recovery.
The World Bank previously estimated the damage in Gaza at $18.5 billion, nearly equivalent to the combined economic output of the West Bank and Gaza in 2022. A U.N. assessment indicated that around a quarter of all structures in Gaza have been destroyed or severely damaged, with about 66% sustaining at least some damage, including over 227,000 housing units.
The report also highlighted that even under the most optimistic scenarios, with a projected growth rate of 10%, recovery would still require decades. It estimated that, assuming no further military operations and significant investment, Gaza’s GDP per capita might return to 2022 levels by 2050.
In a separate report, the U.N. Development Program suggested that with major investment and lifted economic restrictions, the Palestinian economy, including the West Bank, could begin recovering by 2034. However, without such measures, the predictions align closely with those of the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development.
The conflict has resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths, mostly civilians, and the abduction of around 250 individuals during Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel. Israeli military actions have reportedly killed over 42,000 Palestinians, with local health officials estimating that more than half of the deceased are women and children. The violence has displaced around 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents, pushing hundreds of thousands into overcrowded tent camps.
Alazzeh lamented, “Once the cease-fire is reached, the 2.2 million Palestinians will wake up to find they have no homes, schools, universities, hospitals, or roads.” He cautioned that rebuilding under the current blockade would be an immense challenge, stating, “If we return to the way things were, which we shouldn’t, it implies that Gaza is done.”
