Historian Allan Lichtman has finally revealed his prediction for the 2024 election winner, after determining that Kamala Harris has met the critical objectives for victory.
The American University professor, 77, has fashioned his own election model that has correctly forecast every presidential winner since 1984.
He relies on an unorthodox system – ignoring the polls and pundits – based on what he calls ’13 keys’ to the White House, a model he developed in 1981 alongside his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
SINCE 120 YEARS
The model is based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes and even enabled Allan to call Trump’s unexpected 2016 victory a month before the election.
He then used his tactic to correctly predict the outcome in the 2020 elections.
HOW HE FINDS HIS WINNER
Explaining the mysterious 13 keys to the New York Times, Allan said: ‘They are 13 big picture, true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party.
The 13 keys include: Midterm gains, incumbency, primary contest, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, foreign policy failure, and foreign policy success.
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Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate needs to lose six of them in order to be declared a loser under the model.
As of last month, she was down only three: having a Party Mandate/Midterm gains, Incumbency, and Incumbent Charisma.’
Two other keys were looking ‘shaky’ weeks ago: foreign policy and social unrest.
But Allan explained that only two of the 13 keys have anything to do with candidates – incumbent and challenger charisma.
