A forecaster known as the ‘Nostradamus’ of presidential elections has revealed who is currently best placed to win the White House in November.
Professor Allen Lichtman of American University has accurately called the winner of every presidential election since President Reagan’s reelection in 1984.
Lichtman updated his complicated prediction model to reflect President Joe Biden dropping out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris become the presumptive Democratic nominee.
WHAT LICHTMAN PREDICTS
Based on his model which includes thirteen factors, or ‘keys’ as he calls them, Harris is currently on course for victory with less than 100 days to go before Election Day.
Lichtman’s model measures factors against the party currently in the White House, which at this time is the Democrats.
He said he will make his official prediction for the election next month, but Harris has a majority of his keys leaning in her favor to win.
‘I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention,’ Lichtman wrote on X. ‘See my assessment below on the 13 Keys Tracker on where The Keys stand NOW.’
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HARRIS GOT SOME ADVANTAGE
The factors giving Harris the advantage include that she did not face a primary challenger, there has been little threat from third party candidates so far, and the economy is strong in the short and long term.
With the switch to Harris, the White House also hasn’t made a major policy change and the vice president is not facing a scandal or major social unrest.
Lichtman noted that with the transition from Biden to Harris as the presumptive nominee last week, the Democrats have lost one advantage: the incumbency factor.
