A seasoned forecaster, who boasts an impeccable record of predicting every presidential winner for the past 40 years, now assesses Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s potential impact on this year’s election.
Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, DC, has downplayed RFK’s chances of reaching the White House, labeling him as a ‘third-party candidate’ likely to ‘lose momentum as the election draws nearer.’ He expressed skepticism about RFK’s ability to garner significant votes, suggesting that he posed no threat to Biden’s Democratic nomination.
Lichtman’s predictive methodology, known as the ’13 Keys to the White House,’ relies solely on historical factors rather than candidate-preference polls or campaign events.
According to Lichtman, this system enables him to forecast the popular vote outcome based on 13 key criteria, with the candidate who fulfills more criteria being his prediction for the election winner.
Regarding Biden’s prospects, Lichtman noted that two of the keys – lack of a serious primary challenge and incumbency – are already in the Democrat’s favor.
However, he acknowledged that Biden has lost two keys: mandate and charisma. Lichtman emphasized that despite Biden facing challenges in areas such as foreign policy and social unrest, he still believes Biden can retain office.
Lichtman criticized pundits who rely solely on polls for predictions, citing the example of the 1988 election where George H. W. Bush, despite trailing in polls, ultimately won by a landslide.
Lichtman has accurately predicted every election outcome since 1984, although he admits his incorrect prediction in 2000, attributing it to the controversial circumstances surrounding the election. He also takes credit for accurately predicting Trump’s victory in 2016, despite Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote.
Acknowledging the uncertainty inherent in forecasting, Lichtman remains cognizant of the pressure and scrutiny surrounding his predictions, recognizing that no system is infallible in the realm of human affairs.
