During a congressional hearing on Wednesday, Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top general for U.S. forces in Europe, warned that Ukraine will soon face a significant firepower disadvantage against Russia, with a ratio of 10 to one, if Congress fails to swiftly approve the shipment of additional ammunition and weapons to Kyiv.
This testimony was echoed by Celeste Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs. The urgency of their message comes as Congress approaches crucial weeks for deciding on aid for Ukraine, although there is uncertainty regarding the timing of funding approval.
As a result of the delay in passing the $60 billion supplemental bill, Ukraine has been forced to ration its munitions.
“They are now being outshot by the Russian side five to one. So the Russians fire five times as many artillery shells at the Ukrainians than the Ukrainians are able to fire back. That will immediately go to 10 to one in a matter of weeks,” Cavoli said. “We’re not talking about months. We’re not talking hypothetically.”
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has been actively seeking a path forward for the bill aimed at funding the production of new rounds of munitions at U.S. companies, thereby enabling the Pentagon to expedite the delivery of additional munitions to Ukraine.
Despite his efforts to bring the bill to the House floor for a vote, he is encountering opposition from members who prioritize domestic needs, such as border security.
Additionally, Johnson faces a challenge to his leadership role from the far-right wing, led by Georgia Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has called for his removal over this issue.
Meanwhile, as the political battles unfold on Capitol Hill, the dire situation on the battlefield in Ukraine continues to deteriorate.
Cavoli told the lawmakers that in this conflict, the U.S. flow of 155mm artillery shells has been a lifeline. “The biggest killer on the battlefield is artillery. In most conflicts, but in this one definitely. And should Ukraine run out, they would run out because we stopped supplying — because we supply the lion’s share of that,” Cavoli said.
Russia’s own production of missiles has ramped up and can launch large-scale attacks every few days. If Ukraine’s air defense stocks run out, “those attacks would absolutely cripple the economy, and the civil society as well as the military of Ukraine if they were not defended against without a U.S. provision of interceptors,” Cavoli said.
“Their ability to defend their terrain that they currently hold and their airspace would fade rapidly, will fade rapidly without the supplemental,” Cavoli said.
U.S. Army leaders offered similar dire warnings to the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee later in the day, saying that the lack of the supplemental is a critical problem for both Ukraine and the U.S. Army.
“The side that can’t shoot back, loses, and at this point Ukraine is really starting to be pressed to be able to shoot back. So I am very concerned,” said Army Secretary Christine Wormuth. “We saw Ukraine lose some territory a couple of months ago. And I think there is a real danger …that the Russians could have a breakthrough somewhere in the line.”
Gen. Randy George, the Army’s chief of staff, emphasized the necessity of funding to facilitate the provision of long-range weapons and air defense systems to Ukraine, enabling them to safeguard their critical infrastructure and frontline troops.
Additionally, both Wormuth and Gen. Randy George highlighted that without prompt approval of the supplemental funding by Congress, the Army would face financial constraints, preventing the repatriation of troops currently deployed in Europe and impeding funding for training units within the U.S.
“We don’t have the transportation money to have them redeploy,” said Wormuth, referring to Army units that are deployed across Europe. “We don’t have the transportation money to send units to backfill them.”
She and George said they also need the money to continue sending units to the national training centers. to avoid outright cancellation of the training rotations, Wormuth said they can try to reduce participation or shrink their size.
“But those are the kinds of hard choices we’re looking at. If we don’t see the supplementals come across,” she said.
If Kyiv falls, it could imperil Ukraine’s Baltic NATO member neighbors and potentially drag U.S. troops into a prolonged European war.
At a Capitol Hill press conference on Wednesday, Johnson said: “House members are continuing to actively discuss our options on a path forward.”
“It’s a very complicated matter at a very complicated time. The clock is ticking on it, and everyone here feels the urgency of that, but what’s required is that you reach consensus on it, and that’s what we’re working on,” Johnson said.
Michigan Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin urged a vote. “Speaker Johnson has a choice to make. I accept that it’s a complicated choice. I accept that he’s at risk of losing his job over that choice,” Slotkin said.
