The UK must prepare for the sudden collapse of Russia in the wake of Wagner Group’s failed attempt to overthrow Vladimir Putin, warn senior government sources.
Led by former Putin confidant, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the mercenary group was en route to Moscow as part of its coup attempt, before a last-minute deal with the Kremlin halted the march.
President Putin, who had earlier vowed a ‘brutal’ retaliation against the rebels after they appeared to seize the cities of Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh, subsequently spared Prigozhin punishment, on the agreement he’d be exiled in neighbouring Belarus.
Speaking to CBS News, US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken said Wagner’s initial mutiny exposed ‘real cracks’ in the Putin’s regime, adding: ‘This was a direct challenge to Putin’s authority. It raises profound questions.’
According to the New York Times, US Intelligence officials in the White House and the Pentagon first learned of the possibility of an uprising last Wednesday.
However, agencies in the US chose to remain quiet with regards to its knowledge, instead waiting to see how events would play out in Russia.
British officials, meanwhile, who have always maintained that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could spark political unrest in Moscow, said events of the last few days could prove to be ‘a chapter of something new’, according to a source speaking to The Times.
A senior government official added: ‘From the very beginning of the invasion, one of the most obvious scenarios was that the war could lead to political unrest back home in Russia.
‘We have to wait, watch and see what comes next. This could be chapter one of something new. Or it might be all over for Wagner. We must prepare for a whole range of different scenarios.’
Cabinet minister John Glen later commented that although the UK’s unwavering support for Ukraine remained, it wouldn’t be interfering with Russia’s own affairs.
‘It is obviously a very unstable situation in Russia, but it is fundamentally an internal matter,’ he said.
John Foreman, who served as the UK Defence Attaché in the British Embassy in Moscow between 2019 and 2022, said if Wagner’s coup been successful it would have proved a ‘worst case scenario’.
‘You’ve got to be careful what you wish for,’ he explained.
‘Prigozhin is not some sort of liberal, peace-loving democrat. He’s a fascist.’
Discussing diplomats’ surprise at the speed in which the situation escalated, he added: ‘Our assessment was that this was going to be gradual. It wasn’t going to be a sudden march on Moscow.’
Foreman went onto to pinpoint the use of the word ‘smuta’ – meaning ‘strife’ – in Putin’s speech as significant, revealing it was used to remind his people of the need for a strong leader, as well as a reference to the Time of Troubles, a period of anarchy that followed the death of Ivan the Terrible, Russia’s first crowned tsar, in 1584.
‘All Russians know immediately what he is talking about when he uses that word,’ he said.
Meanwhile, former defence chief Lord Richards of Herstmonceux weighed in with his thoughts, meanwhile, stating that Putin remained a powerful adversary, warning the West against ‘woefully underestimating Russia’.
He told Times Radio: ‘Despite the weakened state, arguably of Putin, we’re in for a long haul here and that actually is the worst of all worlds for the West.’
