Infighting between the military and Vladimir Putin’s warlords could be the beginning of the end of the Russian tyrant, an expert has warned.
Luke Coffey, an expert at the Hudson Institute think-tank in Washington, said the Russian president could be ousted as the country faces further break-ups due to internal divisions.
He said the most significant moment of the collapse of Russia was February 2022, when Putin invaded Ukraine – adding that he expects the final break-up of the country to happen once Russia is defeated in Ukraine.
The expert said: “This is the beginning of the end of Putin – the trajectory now is towards Putin being ousted and the further break-up of the Russian Federation.”
The Russian Republic was established after the Russian Revolution of 1917 – and the country became a union republic in 1922.
Russia became an independent country after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991, which created 15 sovereign states including Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.
But Mr Coffey told the Daily Mail that the Soviet Union “is still collapsing” and the dust “is still settling”, meaning that any further break-ups of the country “won’t be easy to repair or fix”.
The expert said when Russia will be defeated in Ukraine, the country is likely to become split into two parts – with hardlines saying they could have won the war if they were in charge and oligarchs trying to patch up relations with the West to preserve their own wealth and power.
Whatever the outcome, however, it is likely that Putin will end up dead or in exile and breakaway regions, where many soldiers returning from Ukraine will go, will rise up against Moscow and demand independence, Mr Coffey added.
He said: “I think you’ll see uprisings among discontented people, Moscow will have to decide which bits and pieces to fight for, which different power-brokers they can engage with to keep their interest in the place.
“There will be a lot of difficult choices to be made and whoever is on top will have to keep an eye on their back.”
The expert’s warning comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted that Putin will eventually be murdered by his inner circle, which is made up of hardliners including fellow former KGB officers whom he has known for decades.
Analysts have said previously said it’s unlikely they would turn on their leader, but as Russia’s battlefield failures have become more apparent, infighting has reared its head.
In a documentary released earlier this year to mark a year since Russia invaded Ukraine, Zelensky said: “There will definitely be a moment when the fragility of Putin’s regime will be felt inside the [Russian] state.
“Then carnivores will eat the carnivore. It is very important, and they will need a reason to justify this. They will recall the words of Komarov, of Zelensky…They will remember. They will find a reason to kill the killer. Will it work? Yes. When? I don’t know.”
