Paul Irving – Russian official policy is to only use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack, or an invasion which threatens to destroy Russia.
Russia conducting a tactical nuclear strike on Kyiv means the war won’t “end the war quicker”. It will rather escalate the war into a global nuclear conflict that sets the world on aplomb.
It is only logical that the moment Russia do that, there will be missiles aimed at every single Russian missile silo.
Paul Irving believed such action would mean a strategic nuclear strike. A tactical nuclear strike would be one aimed at a purely military target, such as a unit of soldiers.
Nuking Kiev would open a whole new can of worms for Russia. It would not be a war-winning move.
If Putin wants to win the Ukraine war, going about it in a conventional way looks the most definite option.
More so, Russian official policy is to only use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack, or an invasion which threatens to destroy Russia.
Ukraine is not Russia. Ukraine didn’t invade Russia. In fact, Russia can quickly end the losses of its soldiers simply by going home, ending the war. Jeff Jones has suggested.
A nation which uses nuclear weapons to conquer its neighbors is a threat to all those neighbors. NATO Article 4 allows NATO members to respond militarily to a threat against any of them, without a direct attack.
NATO has three countries with nuclear weapons, and many are in position to quickly strike targets in Russia.
It’s not possible to distinguish between an aircraft or missile armed with conventional weapons, and one with nuclear weapons. So once one nuclear weapon is used, all of them must be treated as potential nuclear attacks.
NATO, and possibly the other UN Security Council members with nuclear weapons, would act in response.
If Russia then surrenders and goes home, that would let this quickly end the war. The post war consequences for Russia would be bad – sanctions and military intervention if they don’t cooperate.
Or we could get World War III. That would mean a quick war too, but Russia would suffer far greater losses. So would everyone else.
The cries of war is upon us.
