Studies suggest that soldiers should not spend more than 60 days in combat before being rested. Others argue for 45 days before they are ineffective.
Russian forces have long reached 60 days in late April – seven months ago. With its offensive operations thwarted, losses mounting and morale declining, time is running out for Russia’s army in Ukraine, yet the war seems to continue.
As it is, Russia could quickly agree to a peace treaty but seems disinterested in this.
Ukraine’s chief negotiator considers whether Russia believes that it can yet win sizeable battlefield victories which allow it to dictate the terms that end the war.
Since the war grinds on yet at this stage, it is very possible that the war continue for years. The current situation also suggests a prolonged fight, given the significant loss of territory and pride from the two countries involved.
Kyiv would lack leverage if it entered peace negotiations now, with the result likely being “peace” as dictated exclusively by Moscow.
Ask Volodymyr Zelenskyy and he will tell you he does not want that as the situation would not be politically justifiable for him.
It means he lost the war, also large parts of his country. Though UK is being supported militarily, but there is an interesting development coming up about the military supports it gets.
The longer the fighting lasts, the more likely it is that Western support will soften, according to Loukopoulos.
For Shea, there are two likely scenarios going forward.
“Either Ukraine keeps fighting with sustained Western support and eventually forces Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine entirely, with the possible exception of Crimea,” he said.
Or, Shea added, both sides reach a stalemate “where they dig in behind heavily fortified lines that remain fixed for years with a low-intensity conflict across [a] no man’s land”.
Now that end of the war is not yet in sight, could this war become an armistice like in Korea in 1953? Perhaps, another Korea 1953 is in the making.
Russia looks ready to continue the fight as long as Russia’s face is saved. Even now that Russia has got a new commander.
