It is becoming more likely that Russia would soon run out of missiles in the Ukraine conflict. At the moment, Russia has used approximately 59 percent of its missile stockpile since its February 24 invasion of the country. Russia has depleted over half its stockpile in eight months.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has made several attempts to produce tactical and strategic missiles to fight conventional wars. These missiles, like the Kalibr cruise missile and Iskander short-range ballistic missile, can deliver 1,000-pound warheads within several feet of their target from hundreds of miles away.
Furthermore, the Kh-101 is an air-launched cruise missile with a range of around 1,500 miles. Like the Kalibr and Iskander, it can carry a warhead of nearly 1,000 pounds.
The Kinzhal is a hypersonic missile, almost impossible to shoot down, that can deliver a 1,000-pound warhead 1,200 miles. The missile can be guided by satellite or controlled internally by inertial guidance systems.
Now, Russia is running out of these weapons. Several weeks ago, Vladimir Putin signed a decree to increase Russia’s military personnel to 2.04 million, including an additional 137,000 combat troops (one of the reasons for conscripted militants). This indicates that Putin thinks the war in Ukraine is long-term, even lasting years and there are indicators that the war could go longer as he has thought.
The depletion of top-of-the-line Russian missiles would mean they resort to canon artillery or tube artillery which practically means there would be a rising civilians casualties inflicted on the Ukrainian civilians, even though it would give Ukrainian force upper hand strategically.
Pavel Ruzin, a Russian defense sector have this to say that: “For Russia, six months of war have led not only to colossal irreplaceable losses in manpower, but also to a huge waste of weapons and military equipment: guided missiles are already very scarce, shells for artillery and armored vehicles will be exhausted by the end of the year, and the state of military aviation precludes a full-scale air campaign.”
Luzin wrote in an Aug. 30 analysis. “Because of the sanctions, Russia cannot continue full industrial production of weapons and replenish its arms stockpiles, which are rapidly running out.”
Now that Russia’s military keeps facing steep artillery and resupply challenges, they could run out of missiles anytime soon.
