On March 25, the Russian
Ministry of Defence announced that the “first phase” of the invasion of Ukraine
was over.
To that end, on February 24
the Russian army and airborne forces attempted a lightning assault on Kyiv and
simultaneously launched offensives against Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kherson,
Melitopol, Mariupol, and on the line of contact in the Donbas region.
The new announcement by the
Russian government is a direct response to failures. It is an admission that,
at least for now, Russia cannot return Ukraine to its control by force. Instead,
the new claim is that Russia’s goal is a more limited focus on taking territory
and destroying Ukrainian forces in the Donbas.
This is a serious crisis for
President Putin’s regime. To justify the “special military operation” against
Ukraine, he has used extreme rhetoric and baseless claims of neo-Nazism and
genocide in Ukraine for months.
The questions that beg for answers
are: how could the mighty Russian military have failed to destroy the much
weaker Ukrainian army? How can a supposedly high-tech “special military
operation” that would be conducted in a short time by elite forces have led to
tens of thousands of dead, wounded and captured Russian troops and more than 2,000
destroyed Russian vehicles? How is it that the Ukrainian people – supposedly
being oppressed by an unpopular neo-Nazi junta imposed by shadowy hostile
Western forces – are now fighting with fierce anger and almost total national
unity against their Russian “liberators”? Most of all, how can the Russian
government – supposedly a nuclear superpower, and the self-proclaimed heir
of the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945 – make a ceasefire deal that
leaves the supposedly “genocidal”, “neo-Nazi” Ukrainian government in power?
Russia needs a ceasefire soon,
however, because of the current rate of equipment and personnel losses, it is not
sustainable, and in any case, they are making little meaningful progress except
in the east. In fact, in the past week, Ukraine has retaken significant
territory around Mykolaiv and Kherson in the southwest, around Irpin
and Makariv to the west of Kyiv and Trostyanets to the east of
Kyiv. With each passing day, the Ukrainian hand in the ongoing ceasefire
negotiations becomes stronger rather than weaker.
Despite this, some in the
Russian government seem to find it hard to accept these reduced ambitions and
the reality that they imply. On March 27, Dmitry Kiselyov stated on
Russian television that “Russia will never cede Ukraine to anyone … it has
to be part of Russia, even against Ukraine’s own will.”
Furthermore, Russia continues
to conduct missile strikes throughout Ukraine including in Lviv in the
west and is finding it difficult to disengage its forces around Kyiv, Kharkiv,
Sumy, and Kherson due to strong Ukrainian counterattacks.
Therefore, while a new phase
of the invasion has been announced, it remains to be seen if Russia can
successfully focus on the Donbas as stated.
