Not long ago, Vladimir Putin, often compared to a modern-day Stalin, had reasons to feel confident. His “special military operation” in Ukraine had initially failed to achieve its main goal of absorbing Ukraine into a Greater Russia.
However, Russia’s “meat-grinder” strategy had managed to occupy about a third of Ukraine’s remaining territory after the 2014 invasion. Russian forces were advancing, albeit slowly and at a high cost in lives.
The ongoing attacks on civilians, homes, and energy infrastructure were wearing down the Ukrainians, despite their brave resistance. North Korea promised 40,000 fresh troops, and Russia’s allies in the Middle East, including Iran and Syria, were helping to bypass sanctions.
Despite setbacks in proxy wars against Israel and the U.S., Putin was looking forward to a potential deal with Donald Trump upon his return to the White House.
But now, the situation has changed for the Russian leader. Ukraine continues to resist, disrupting Russian bombing raids with longer-range Western missiles and even executing the bold assassination of a top Russian general near the Kremlin. Ukrainian footage showing North Korean soldiers surrendering has not been disputed.
Meanwhile, Russia’s influence in the Middle East is waning. The fall of Bashar al-Assad has fractured Russian power, weakening Iran and threatening vital military bases in Syria. Iran can no longer freely move through Syria to arm terrorists, and it faces growing isolation due to Israeli attacks and its own ineffective defenses.
Perhaps most troubling for Putin, President-elect Trump appears more balanced on a potential peace deal, despite some controversial remarks about military support for Ukraine.
European support for Ukraine remains strong, with new EU sanctions being imposed. The Joint Expeditionary Force and Nordic-Baltic countries continue to show their commitment to Ukraine, and Zelensky’s address to the summit signals potential future EU membership for Ukraine.
Despite sanctions evasion, Russia’s economy is under increasing strain, with fewer reliable allies, including China, offering indefinite support. While Ukraine may not “win” in the sense of reclaiming all its lost territory, it is in a far stronger position than expected earlier in the war. Zelensky’s comments at the Estonia summit about 2025 highlight the possibility of ending the war with a lasting peace, not just a temporary pause.
Even if Ukraine doesn’t regain all its territory immediately, it can look forward to a more secure future, protected by Western military guarantees. This presents a challenge for European solidarity, but with potential plans for a European defense pact, President Zelensky may very well emerge victorious in this diplomatic battle.
