Allan Lichtman, a distinguished history professor known for his accurate predictions of U.S. presidential elections over the past four decades, has made his forecast for the 2024 election: Kamala Harris.
Often referred to as the “Nostradamus” of American politics, Lichtman relies on his unique predictive model rather than traditional polls and punditry. Since 1981, his model has successfully predicted Donald Trump’s 2016 victory and Joe Biden’s 2020 win.
Lichtman’s model is built on 13 “keys” that assess various factors such as the incumbent party’s performance on the economy and foreign policy, the appeal of the challenger, and the presence of major scandals.
According to the model, if five or fewer of these “true/false” keys are “false,” the incumbent party—in this case, the Democrats—is expected to win.
For the 2024 election, Lichtman forecasts a win for Harris, noting that the Democratic Party is in a strong position with no significant third-party challengers, a stable economy, and the positive impact of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.
He also points out the absence of major social unrest, all of which favor the Democratic side.
