Russia’s revanchist and imperial ambitions may not stop at Ukraine.
Unless Russian forces are defeated in Ukraine or withdrawn by new Kremlin rulers, Moscow might assault other post-Soviet neighbors.
The West may face limits on the extent to which it could help them thwart such attacks.
As repression has climbed under President Vladimir Putin and Russia has become more autocratic, Russian behavior has become more imperial and revanchist, not least in Ukraine, a conflict that will be one year old on Feb. 24.
But Moscow’s expansive ambitions may go well beyond it.
In 2005, Putin called the Soviet collapse ‘the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.’
In 2008, then-Prime Minister Putin told President George W. Bush, ‘Ukraine is not even a country.’
Soon Russia invaded Georgia and asserted ‘privileged interests’ in the wider region.
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In 2014 and on a larger scale in 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine.
In 2022, Putin claimed that prior to President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s reign, ‘Kazakhs never had statehood.’
In 2016, Putin claimed that Russia’s border ‘has no end.’
Where might new Russian threats emerge?
No wonder neighbors worry. They have reason to fear where Putin’s Russia might strike next, especially if revanchist rulers remain in the Kremlin or the invaders prevail in Ukraine.
The Baltics, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Kazakhstan – the fate of Russia’s neighbors may hinge in great part on the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
Especially if the Kremlin managed to portray the war as a success, it might be emboldened to employ force against other neighbors.
This is one reason why the West has strong interests in a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine and an end to revanchist rule in Russia.
The West might be bolder about asserting the latter interest.
