Vladimir Putin is ‘gambling’ on Donald Trump winning the 2024 US election and ending the superpower’s backing for Ukraine, according to Western officials.
How Trump winning the US election in 2024 could affect Russia-Ukraine war
The Kremlin is hoping that a second Trump presidency would see support for Kyiv dwindle, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive relying heavily on sustained Western backing.
Trump has pledged to immediately end the war in Ukraine if re-elected, threatening to cut off military aid and convince Kyiv to sacrifice territory in the east – something Ukraine has vowed it will not do.
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While progress in Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been slower than hoped, the official said, Putin’s ‘gamble’ on Trump re-entering the Oval office in November next year is a risky one as the Russian ranks continue to be eroded.
‘Russia thinks time is on its side, we think times is on our side,’ the official said.
‘It has been put that if you’re Putin you’re gambling that Donald Trump wins the next election. But that is quite a long way away.’
Looking at the bigger picture
Officials admitted that a major breakthrough by Ukrainian forces is unlikely to be made before winter, but encouraged observers to look at the bigger picture rather than ‘focusing on such tactical issues’.
‘Russia has lost either killed or wounded over 270,000 people and [destroyed] over a couple of thousand tanks, and if you add that to armoured fighting vehicles [it is] over 4,000 fighting vehicles.
‘There has been an enormous drain on Russia, and particularly its army and its combat effectiveness,’ the official said.
‘And then in the broadest base, you’re seeing Russia under economic pressure and under diplomatic pressure.’
Trump is not the only Republican candidate who has aimed to secure votes by reducing spending on Ukraine.
Another frontrunner in the race for the presidency, Vivek Ramaswamy, has been accused of being soft on the Kremlin.
The 38-year-old tycoon’s position on the war – if he were to win the race – would be to freeze the battle lines in Ukraine, allowing Russia keep the Donbas region.
