For President Zelensky’s forces to repel a new Russian offensive – and then mount a counter-offensive to win the war – the British contribution of a dozen Challenger II tanks to Ukraine could prove vital.
But, although Britain’s Challenger tanks are seriously superior to their Russian counterpart, the T-72, sending just 12 is not enough to make a significant military impact or to entice our allies to follow our example. A dozen tanks is little more than a symbolic gesture.
I think we need to commit at least 30, and probably up to 50 Challenger IIs – and a comparable number of Warrior infantry fighting vehicles as well.
These do not have the same destructive capability as a tank but are essential in providing firepower and protection for infantry when they join the rest in an attack.
Their potential impact cannot be overstated. All of our military intelligence indicates that Russia is preparing a desperate offensive within the next few weeks.
Moscow enlisted between 200,000 and 300,000 recruits, who received little equipment and less training.
This large but poorly organized army will be launched an assault that Ukraine will have to resist. Once the Russian soldiers realize that they are not winning, their morale will plummet even further.
At this point, which I expect early spring, Zelensky should be in a position to launch a decisive counteroffensive.
And unless the West ensures that its troops have the weapons they need, Ukraine will not be able to deliver this coup de grace.
Expecting a negotiated settlement, now or in the future, is unrealistic. There is simply no common ground to open talks. Zelensky has sworn from the start that nothing less than complete sovereignty for Ukraine is acceptable.
He cannot cede any part of his country to the Russian aggressors and continue to face his own people with honor.
And we can’t see Putin losing the war, or even compromising. His only hope of retaining power is a military victory. For the West, this is unthinkable.
If negotiations are not an option, there must be a decision on the battlefield. One side or the other must win immediately.
So far Britain has provided invaluable military aid to Ukraine but has refrained from sending tanks for fear of dragging us into open war with Russia.
The time for this caution is over: 2023 must be the decisive year.
Already, our anti-tank weapons have helped break up early Russian attacks on Kyiv and other cities, and the US Starlink satellite system has transformed Ukraine’s command and control capability.
Long-range artillery such as the Himars system wreaked havoc on Russia’s logistics and supplies. But what the Ukrainians are now demanding is offensive power, to lead the fight against the enemy.
This means more artillery and air defense weapons, but most tanks and armored vehicles. And there’s nothing better than the Challenger II.
