The Russian war against Ukraine was avoidable, but it required both Ukraine and the West to recognize early on.
By 1993, Russia was an inherently dangerous nation, a disaster waiting to happen, and act then. Ukraine should have turned westwards no later than 1996 and never look back.
Had Ukraine joined NATO in 1999 or 2003, there would be no Russian war against Ukraine, because Russian army and political leadership would know full well they can’t win the war.
They can hardly win the war as it is, Russian military gear is hardly much better than what Ukrainians have on average, but they would know it on all levels and wouldn’t even try.
Back in the 1990s when Russia was weak, the West made the mistake not to declaw it. Germany after WWII was partitioned and subjected to reparations, even though the Third Reich had only existed for 12 years.
The USSR had existed for 70 years and did far greater damage to the world, being responsible not only for the occupation of half of Europe, but also for the creation of communist China, North Korea, Cuba and numerous other communist dictatorships.
Nonetheless, Russia managed to get away with that with complete impunity and didn’t pay a dime for the crimes it committed. The West should’ve never allowed it to keep nuclear weapons and a powerful military, and with a bit of work, Gorbachev and Yeltsin could’ve been pressured to give up both.
Had Ukraine joined NATO in the 2000s or early 2010s, none of this would’ve happened. Unfortunately, Ukraine was pretty much refused NATO membership in 2008. Short of Ukraine joining NATO, the US could’ve set up a military base or two in Ukraine. This would probably have been enough to deter Putin.
Putin temporarily stepped down as president in 2008 and didn’t return to power until 2012. During this period, he was much weaker than he is now, and the US should’ve made it a priority to prevent him from becoming president again.
Although then-president Medvedev is universally considered Putin’s puppet, even puppets can go against their masters with the right motivation and a bit of foreign support. The US should’ve made it clear that it would support Medvedev’s second term and if needed, help to clean the state apparatus from Putin loyalists.
The nuclear option: Biden could’ve called Putin in February and warned him outright that if he invades Ukraine, he will be deposed and assassinated. Not even Putin would be dumb enough to ignore such a warning from the President of the United States.
Unfortunately, nothing of that was ever done, and here we are!
